鞍山师范学院学报

营商环境是一个国家或地区经济软实力的具体体现，良好的营商环境是激发市场活力、增强区域发展的重要驱动力.选取我国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据，利用组合赋权法对2017—2023年各地区的营商环境水平进行测算，并通过核密度函数、泰尔指数和灰色预测分析模型对营商环境的变化趋势、区域差异性和未来发展趋势进行分析.结果表明：区域营商环境水平总体呈现上升趋势，其中，广东、江苏和山东营商环境水平位居样本前列.区域差异总体呈现收敛态势，具体来看，东部地区对总体营商环境差异贡献最大，呈现多层次发展格局；西部地区次之，且其内部差异有所扩大；中部地区贡献率较低且变化较小，区域整体保持均衡发展；东北地区贡献率最低，泰尔指数持续下降，区域内营商环境差异不断缩小.灰色预测结果显示，未来东部沿海地区将继续发挥引领作用，中西部地区增长潜力显著，预示了我国营商环境发展的良好前景.

The business environment embodies the economic soft power of a region or nation.A conducive business environment serves as a vital driver for stimulating market vitality and fostering regional development.Utilizing panel data from 31 provinces in China,this study employs a combination weighting method to assess the business environment levels across these regions from 2017 to 2023.Subsequently,the study examines temporal trends,spatial disparities,and prospective developments through the application of kernel density estimation,the Theil index,and the Gray Forecast Model.The results indicate an overall upward trajectory in the business environment within the examined regions,with Guangdong,Jiangsu,and Shandong emerging as leading performers.Regional disparities overall show a convergent trend.Specifically,the eastern region contributes the most to the overall variation,exhibiting a multi-tiered development pattern. The western region ranks second,where internal disparities have widened due to the leading development of growth-pole cities.The central region displays a comparatively lower and stable contribution rate,reflecting balanced regional development.The northeastern region shows the smallest contribution rate,with a consistently declining Theil index,signifying a progressive reduction in internal disparities in the business environment.Forecasts derived from the Gray Forecast Model indicate that the eastern coastal areas will maintain their dominant position,while the central and western regions possess considerable growth potential,suggesting a promising outlook for the development of China′s business environment.